Profile photo of Valarie Bays

3 Reasons Why Jake Arrieta is NOT a good fit in Philly

March 12, 2018 at 11:48 am

The Phillies have signed free agent and former Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta to a 3-year $75MM contract. Here’s why the 32-year old with not prosper in the city of brotherly love, who has an opt-out clause after year two:

1) With age comes a decline in durability. Arrieta has now had 3 straight seasons of diminishing innings pitched (229 -> 197 -> 168). At this pace, averaging a decline of -13% YoY, we can expect the new Phillie to be at approx. 146 IP for 2018.

2) Arietta SO/9 has declined/stayed consistent for four consecutive seasons (9.6 -> 9.3 -> 8.7 -> 8.7). At this pace, with an average decline of -3% over the past few seasons, his new SO/9 should be closer to 8.4. Now averaging less than one strikeout per innings pitched, with an estimated 146 IP for the season, its very likely he will have the lowest amount of SO’s dating back to the 2013 season, his first in Chicago.

3) The Phillies are rebuilding. Arrieta has taken advantage of playing for one of the best teams in baseball over the past few seasons, where he has had 54 wins over the past 3 seasons. His wins have dropped for 3 consecutive years, (22 -> 18 -> 14) while his ERA has gone up for 3 consecutive years, (1.77 -> 3.10 -> 3.53)

Arietta is expected to see a continued:
1) Decrease in Ws
2) Increase in ERA
3) Decrease in IP
4) Decrease in SO

Unless he falls in your draft and offers a steal of a pick (value wise v. ADP), stay away from Jake Arrietta this season.

3 comments to this topic | Share:

Profile photo of Jacob Elsner
Posted 12 March 2018

At the same time NL east sucks, should have better matchups and strength of schedule throughout the year. W/Nola at the #1, Arrieta should be #2.

Profile photo of Kevin
Posted 12 March 2018

Profile photo of Stu Peterson
Posted 13 March 2018

still a better option than most of the league!!

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